Reporting by Victoria E. Freile, NY Connect Team / Rochester Democrat and Chronicle
The Old Farmer’s Almanac has released its extended fall forecast, offering a look at what temperatures and precipitation could look like across the country, including New York.
The publication predicts a mix of conditions this fall, with some areas expected to experience cooler, wetter weather while others could see warmer and drier conditions.
In New York, most regions are expected to see a colder-than-normal fall. Western and central NY — including Buffalo, Rochester and parts of the Southern Tier — along with NY City and Long Island are forecast to have drier-than-normal or near-normal precipitation.
Northeastern NY, including the Capital Region, Adirondacks and upper Hudson Valley, is expected to see slightly wetter-than-usual conditions.
However, the forecast varies depending on where in the state you live.
Old Farmer’s Almanac fall forecast for NY
Rochester, Buffalo, Syracuse (Lower Lakes Region)
Forecast: Cooler conditions in September before temperatures return closer to average in October. Rainfall is expected to be near or slightly below normal.
Temperatures: Near or slightly below normal
Utica, Albany, Adirondacks (Northeast Region)
Forecast: Cooler and wetter-than-normal conditions are expected.
Temperatures: Below normal
Elmira, Binghamton, Ithaca (Appalachian Region)
Forecast: Cooler and drier-than-normal conditions are expected.
Temperatures: Below normal
NYC, Long Island (Atlantic Corridor Region)
Forecast: Cooler and drier-than-normal conditions are expected.
Temperatures: Below normal
How does the Old Farmer’s Almanac make its forecasts?
According to its website, the Old Farmer’s Almanac bases its long-range forecasts on a combination of solar science, climatology and meteorology.
The publication says its forecasts use factors including solar activity, historical weather patterns and atmospheric conditions.
How accurate is the Old Farmer’s Almanac?
The Old Farmer’s Almanac has published long-range weather forecasts for more than 200 years and claims its predictions are about 80% accurate.
Some weather experts, however, estimate the accuracy of long-range forecasts is closer to 50%, noting that predictions made months in advance come with significant uncertainty — especially at the local level.
When does fall officially begin?
Fall officially begins in NY and across the Northern Hemisphere with the autumnal equinox on Tuesday, Sept. 22.
Meteorologists define the start of fall differently. The meteorological fall season begins Sept. 1 and runs through Nov. 30, aligning with the calendar months used to track seasonal weather patterns, according to the National Weather Service.
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle.
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