New York has 26 seats in the US House, and this year, a handful of them are close enough to help decide which party runs Congress for the next two years.
Political forecasters rate US House races on a scale that runs from “safe,” where one party is expected to win easily, to “toss-up,” where either side has a real shot. We’re watching New York’s a toss-up seat, two likely Democratic seats and two leaning Democratic seats this election cycle.
These are the five decisive contests where your vote tips the scale this November.
NY-3: Suozzi’s second act, tested again
Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi has already lived several political lives in this district. He held the seat from 2017 to 2023, made a long-shot run for governor in 2022 that ended with him taking just 13% in the Democratic primary against Kathy Hochul, per City & State, then returned to Congress by winning the February 2024 special election to replace the expelled George Santos. Before all that, he spent seven years as Nassau county executive, where he built FixAlbany.com to expose state corruption—work that named him as one of Governing magazine’s Public Officials of the Year in 2005.
He won a full term in November 2024 against Republican Mike LiPetri, a Massapequa attorney who spent one term in the state Assembly before losing a 2020 primary for a neighboring congressional seat to now-US Rep. Andrew Garbarino (R-N.Y.). Suozzi took the district 51.7% to 48.1%. LiPetri is running against Suozzi again this year. Cook rates the district lean Democratic.
NY-4: A rematch two years in the making
Rep. Laura Gillen, a Democrat, unseated Republican Anthony D’Esposito in 2024 by just over two points—51.1% to 48.8%, per certified results. Now, he wants his old seat back.
Gillen is no stranger to squeaking out wins. In 2017, she became the first Democrat elected Hempstead town supervisor in more than a century and second woman to serve in the position, unseating a Republican incumbent by a margin the Long Island Herald called historic. D’Esposito, a former NYPD detective and Island Park deputy mayor, served just one term in Congress before losing his seat. He’s spent the two years since building his comeback case. Cook Political Report calls this one a leaning Democratic seat.
NY-17: The incumbent with the Warhol
Rep. Mike Lawler, a Republican, pulled off one of 2022’s biggest upsets, unseating then-DCCC chair Sean Patrick Maloney. He’s held the seat since. In an Oct. 2024 interview with CNN addressing a resurfaced photo of him in a 2006 Blackface Halloween costume as Michael Jackson, Lawler mentioned an Andy Warhol painting of the King of Pop he keeps in his congressional office as evidence of his admiration for the singer.
His challenger, Cait Conley, brings an unusual resume for a Democratic candidate: a background in national security and election-security work, running to unseat an incumbent in a district that has shifted red at the top of the ticket even as it has remained competitive downballot. Cook rates NY-17 toss-up, tight enough to stay on the watch list.
NY-19: The seat that can’t make up its mind
Few districts in the country flip as often as NY-19. It’schanged hands three times since 2018, and both of the last two elections decided by fewer than three points—including Democratic US Rep Josh Riley’s 2024 win over then-Rep. Marc Molinaro by fewer than 4,000 votes.
This cycle turned personal fast. Riley’s campaign has branded his opponent, Republican state Senator Peter Oberacker “Pay More Pete,” accusing him of taking utility-industry donations while rates climb.
Oberacker’s campaign has hit back over Riley’s own utility ties: Mid Hudson News reported Riley holds up to $250,000 in mutual funds that hold shares of NYSEG’s parent company even as he’s called the utility’s rate hikes “robbery.”
Oberacker’s campaign has branded Riley a “phony and a hypocrite” over it. President Donald Trump endorsed Oberacker in February, calling Riley “a radical Left extremist” in the same post.
Riley holds a real financial edge heading into November: $4.83 million raised to Oberacker’s $1.24 million as of the last filing deadline. Cook still calls this one a likely Democratic seat.
The top of the ticket
Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul’s race against Bruce Blakeman, the Republican serving as Nassau’s county executive, has tightened this summer.
A Siena poll released Aug. 12 has her ahead 49% to 39% among likely voters, down from a 20-point lead in June. She still dominates New York City, 64% to 19%, but trails Blakeman in the downstate suburbs by eight points, and independents favor him narrowly, 45% to 40%.
Blakeman ran unopposed since US Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.), a Trump ally with her own national profile, dropped her bid last year. He entered that race fresh off winning reelection as Nassau County executive by 12 points in a county Democrats have carried before—a result his campaign points to as proof he can win over the suburban voters Hochul needs to hold onto.
The two have clashed hardest over immigration enforcement. After Hochul introduced legislation in January to end local police cooperation with US Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Blakeman called her “the most pro-criminal governor in the United States who has a callous disregard for the safety of our communities and victims of crime,” in comments reported by News10.
Expect that fight to stay front and center through November.
Not sure who will be on your ballot yet? Build your personalized sample ballot.
